Publicat: 18 Februarie, 2017 - 22:15
O perspectivă pe termen lung

Studiul efectuat în februarie 2017 de către PWC sugerează că piețele emergente din TOP 10 vor continua să crească.
China va fi și în 2050 pe prima poziție, urmată de India, care va face rocadă cu Statele Unite, iar Japonia și Germania vor retrograda de pe locurile 4 și 5, pe 8 și 9, pozițiile lor fiind luate de Indonezia (acum pe 8) și Brazilia (acum pe 7). Rusia își va păstra locul 6, iar Mexicul va intra între primii 10 (pe 7) unde nu se află în prezent. Marea Britanie va încheia plutonul, iar Franța îl va părăsi.

Cele mai însemnate progrese în privința PIB-ului vor înregistra Vietnamul, Filipinele și Nigeria, iar Statele Unite și Europa vor pierde teren în fața Chinei și Indiei.

 

February 2017

Emerging markets will dominate the world’s top 10 economies in 2050 (GDP at PPPs)

Vietnam, the Philippines and Nigeria could make the greatest moves up the GDP at PPP rankings by 2050

The US and Europe will steadily lose groiind to China and India

Share of world GDP (PPPs) from 2016 to 2050...

Global economic power will shft from the Gy to the Ey economies

Sources: IMF for 2016 estimates, PwC analysis for projections to 2050

G7: US, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada and Italy

E7: China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Turkey

 

1. Summary: The world in 2050

Key findings

1. We project that the world economy could more than double in size by 2050, assuming broadly growth- friendly policies (including no sustained long-term retreat into protectionism) and no major global civilisation-threatening catastrophes.

2. Emerging markets will continue to be the growth engine of the global economy. By 2050, the E7 economies could have increased their share of world GDP from around 35% to almost 50%. China could be the largest economy in the world, accounting for around 20% of world GDP in 2050, with India in second place and Indonesia in fourth place (based on GDP at PPPs).

3. A number of other emerging markets will also take centre stage - Mexico could be larger than the UK and Germany by 2050 in PPP terms and six of the seven largest economies in the world could be emerging markets by that time.

4. Meanwhile, the EU27 share of world GDP could be down to less than 10% by 2050, smaller than India.

5. We project Vietnam, India and Bangladesh to be three of the world’s fastest growing economies over this period. UK growth has the potential to outpace the average rate in the EU27 after the transitional impact of Brexit has passed, although we project the fastest growing large EU economy to be Poland.

6. Today’s advanced economies will continue to have higher average incomes, but emerging economies should make good progress towards closing this gap by 2050. This will open up great opportunities for businesses prepared to make long-term investments in these markets. But this will require patience to ride out the storms we have seen recently in economies like, for example, Brazil, Nigeria and Turkey, all of which still have considerable long-term economic potential based on our analysis.

7. To realise this growth potential, emerging market governments need to implement structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, diversify their economies away from undue reliance on natural resources (where this is currently the case), and develop more effective political and legal institutions.

 

1.1 Our approach

In this report, we present our latest long-term economic growth projections, providing an update to our 2015 results. We project GDP to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, which together currently account for around 85% of global GDP. We hope this analysis will be of interest to policymakers around the world, businesses making long-term investments, academics, students and economic commentators. These long-term growth projections will also feed into other PwC projects and reports.

Our analysis uses a robust long-term economic growth model from the academic literature that accounts in a rigorous way for projected trends in demographics, capital investment, education levels and technological progress to estimate potential long-term growth rates. We assume broadly growth-friendly (but not perfect) policies and no major civilisation-threatening global catastrophes (e.g. nuclear war, asteroid collisions) over the period to 2050. Technical details of our methodology are contained in Appendix A of the full report.

We are aiming to identify broad long-term trends, abstracting from short-term economic and political cycles. We are not claiming to be able to make precise forecasts of GDP in 2050, which is clearly not possible looking that far ahead, but we do believe it is possible to trace out the broad shape of economic power shifts over this period. We have also looked at the impact of a range of alternative assumptions on our long-term growth projections (see Section 2.4 of the full report).

Our modelling projections are summarised in this short report and set out in more detail in our full report, which also includes:

• commentaries on five emerging markets (China, Nigeria, Colombia, Turkey and Poland) from PwC senior economists or partners in these countries;

• interviews with three leading academics - Professor Marvin Zonis, Professor Branko Milanovic and Professor Michael Jacobides - on the uncertainties around our projections, the challenge of income inequality, the need for institutional reform and the implications of our analysis for business strategy; and summaries of a range of other PwC research and case study analysis to draw out the implications of the long-term global economic trends we project for public policy and business.

 

1.2 GDP projections to 2050

Global economic growth will be driven by emerging market economies, which will gradually increase their share of world GDP over time

We project that the world economy will roughly double in size by 2042, growing at an annual average rate of around 2.6% between 2016 and 2050.

We expect this growth to be driven larely by emerging market and developing countries, with the E7 economies of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey growing at an annual average rate of almost 3.5% over the next 34 years, compared to just 1.6% for the advanced G7 nations of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US.

We will continue to see the shift in global economic power away from established advanced economies, especially those in Europe, towards emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere. As shown in Figure 1, the E7 could comprise almost 50% of world GDP by 2050, while the G7’s share declines to only just over 20%.

 

Figure 1: Projected change in shares of world GDP from 2016 to 2050

Sources: IMF for 2016 estimate, PwC projections for 2050

In fact, China has already overtaken the US to become the world’s largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms1, while India currently stands in third place and is projected to overtake the US by 2050 in PPP terms. By 2050, France will no longer be among the world’s ten largest economies on this basis, with the UK

falling to 10th place, while Indonesia could rise to 4th place by 2050 (see Figure 2 and also Table 1 in Section 2 below). By 2050, six of the seven largest economies in the world could be today’s emerging economies in PPP terms according to our projections.

Figure 2: Projected GDP rankings (at PPPs)

Sources: IMF for 2016 estimates (updated for Turkey due to recent major statistical revisions), PwC projections for 2030 and 2050

When looking at GDP measured at market exchange rates (MERs)2, we do not see quite such a radical shift in global economic power, reflecting the lower average price levels in emerging economies. But China still emerges as the largest economy in the world before 2030 and India is clearly the third largest in the world by 2050, so there is still a considerable shift in economic power towards Asia in particular whichever measure we use.

We will see a number of new emerging markets taking centre stage

By 2050, emerging economies such as Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico are likely to be larger than the UK and France, while Pakistan and Egypt could overtake Italy and Canada (on a PPP basis). In terms of growth, Vietnam, India and Bangladesh could be the fastest growing economies over the period to 2050, averaging growth of around 5% a year. Figure 3 shows the projected average annual GDP growth rate over the next 34 years for all of the 32 countries we modelled. Total GDP growth is also broken down into how much is attributable to population growth and how much to real GDP per capita growth.

Figure 3: Projected average real GDP growth p.a., 2016-2050

Source: PwC analysis based on UN population projections

Nigeria has the potential to be the fastest growing large African economy and could move up the GDP rankings from 22nd place to 14th by 2050. But Nigeria will only realise this potential if it can diversify its economy away from oil and strengthen its institutions and infrastructure. Colombia and Poland also exhibit great potential, and are projected to be the fastest growing large economies in their respective regions, Latin America and the EU (though Turkey is projected to grow faster within the wider European area).

As Figure 3 shows, growth in many emerging economies will be supported by relatively fast-growing populations, boosting domestic demand and the size of the workforce. This will, however, need to be complemented with investment in education and an improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals to ensure there are sufficient jobs for growing numbers of young people in these countries.

Today’s advanced economies will continue to have higher average incomes, but by 2050 emerging economies should make good progress towards closing this gap

With the possible exception of Italy, all of the G7 will continue to sit above the E7 based on our rankings of GDP per capita in 2050. China achieves a middling rank by 2050, while India remains near the bottom, as illustrated in Map 1. India’s GDP per capita trajectory over the next 34 years is markedly different to its overall GDP progression, illustrating that while strong population growth can be a key driver of GDP growth, it can also make it more challenging to boost average income levels.

Source: PwC analysis

The gap is closing, however. In 2016, US GDP per capita was around four times the size of China’s and almost nine times that of India’s. By 2050, these gaps are projected to narrow to around double China’s and around three times India’s, demonstrating long-term income convergence.

The world economy will slow down over time, with a marked moderation in growth rates after 2020

We project annual global economic growth to average around 3.5% over the next 4 years to 2020, slowing down to 2.7% for 2021-2030, 2.5% for the decade after that, and 2.4% for 2041-2050. This will occur as many advanced economies experience a marked decline in their working-age populations. At the same time, emerging market growth rates will moderate as these economies mature, which is consistent with academic research3 on the tendency for growth rates to ‘regress to the mean’ in the long-run.

This is illustrated in Figure 4, with the growth rates of the largest emerging economies moderating over time to converge to around 2% in the very long run in line with the major advanced economies. India and Nigeria are the two of the main exceptions to this, with growth remaining higher for longer due to their lower initial average income levels providing greater scope for catch up growth.

Figure 4: Projected growth profiles for larger economies

Source: PwC analysis

1.3 Challenges for policymakers in achieving sustainable long term growth

To realise their full economic potential, emerging market governments need to implement structural reforms to improve their macroeconomic stability, infrastructure and institutions

Our analysis shows the great potential that emerging economies have to grow and prosper over the coming decades. But to realise this potential in full, they must undertake sustained and effective investment in education, infrastructure and technology. Subdued global demand growth and a falling oil price over recent years have highlighted the importance of diversified economies for long-term sustainable growth. Underlying all of this is the need to develop political, economic, legal and social institutions in order to generate incentives for innovation and entrepreneurship, creating secure and reliable economies in which to do business.

Looking forward, the global economy faces a number of challenges to prosperous economic growth. Structural developments, such as ageing populations and climate change, require forward-thinking policy which equips the workforce to continue to make societal contributions later on in life and promotes sustainable development. Falling global trade growth, rising inequality and increasing geopolitical uncertainties are also intensifying the need to create diversified economies which create opportunities for everyone in a broad variety of industries (in both advanced and emerging economies).

These public policy issues are discussed in more detail in Section 4 of our full report, including contributions from leading PwC and external experts on these topics.

1.4 Opportunities for business - winning in emerging markets

Businesses need to adopt flexible, dynamic and patient strategies to navigate these rapidly evolving and maturing emerging markets

Emerging market development will create many opportunities for business. These will arise as these economies progress into new industries, engage with world markets and as their populations - which will also be more youthful on average than in advanced nations - get richer. As these emerging countries develop their institutions, fostering social stability and strengthening their macroeconomic fundamentals, they will become more attractive places to do business and live, attracting investment and talent.

These economies are rapidly evolving and often relatively volatile, however, so companies will need dynamic and flexible operating strategies to succeed in them. Businesses should be prepared to adjust their brand and market positions to suit differing and often more nuanced local preferences. An in-depth understanding of the local market, policy regimes and consumers will be crucial, which will often involve working with local partners.

Section 5 of our full report contains a number of examples of how international businesses have overcome challenges and ultimately been successful in combining their global best practices with flexible adaptation to local business and consumer environments in emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil. We also draw here on the extensive research of PwC’s Growth Markets Centre4.

One key message from this research is that international businesses and other investors need to be patient enough to ride out the short term economic and political ups and downs that will inevitably occur from time to time in emerging markets as they move towards maturity. But the projections in our report make clear that failure to engage with these markets means missing out on the bulk of the economic growth we expect to see in the world economy between now and 2050.

2. Key results tables

Table 1: Projected rankings of economies based on GDP at PPPs (in constant 2016 $bn)

GDP PPP

2016 rankings

2030 rankings

2050 rankings

rankings

Country

GDP at PPP

Country

Projected GDP at PPP

Country

Projected GDP at PPP

1

China

21269

China

38008

China

58499

2

United States

18562

United States

23475

India

44128

3

India

8721

India

19511

United States

34102

4

Japan

4932

Japan

5606

Indonesia

10502

5

Germany

3979

Indonesia

5424

Brazil

7540

6

Russia

3745

Russia

4736

Russia

7131

7

Brazil

3135

Germany

4707

Mexico

6863

8

Indonesia

3028

Brazil

4439

Japan

6779

9

United Kingdom

2788

Mexico

3661

Germany

6138

10

France

2737

United Kingdom

3638

United Kingdom

5369

11

Mexico

2307

France

3377

Turkey

5184

12

Italy

2221

Turkey

2996

France

4705

13

South Korea

1929

Saudi Arabia

2755

Saudi Arabia

4694

14

Turkey

1906

South Korea

2651

Nigeria

4348

15

Saudi Arabia

1731

Italy

2541

Egypt

4333

16

Spain

1690

Iran

2354

Pakistan

4236

17

Canada

1674

Spain

2159

Iran

3900

18

Iran

1459

Canada

2141

South Korea

3539

19

Australia

1189

Egypt

2049

Philippines

3334

20

Thailand

1161

Pakistan

1868

Vietnam

3176

21

Egypt

1105

Nigeria

1794

Italy

3115

22

Nigeria

1089

Thailand

1732

Canada

3100

23

Poland

1052

Australia

1663

Bangladesh

3064

24

Pakistan

988

Philippines

1615

Malaysia

2815

25

Argentina

879

Malaysia

1506

Thailand

2782

26

Netherlands

866

Poland

1505

Spain

2732

27

Malaysia

864

Argentina

1342

South Africa

2570

28

Philippines

802

Bangladesh

1324

Australia

2564

29

South Africa

736

Vietnam

1303

Argentina

2365

30

Colombia

690

South Africa

1148

Poland

2103

31

Bangladesh

628

Colombia

1111

Colombia

2074

32

Vietnam

595

Netherlands

1080

Netherlands

1496

Sources: IMF for 2016 estimates, PwC projections for 2030 and 2050 using UN population projections (Note that Turkish GDP has been revised significantly upwards from the IMF estimate for 2016 due to revisions made subsequently by the Turkish statistical office)

Table 2: Breakdown of the components of average real GDP growth (2016-2050)

Country

Average population growth

Average real growth per

Average GDP growth p.a.

p.a.

capita p.a.

(in domestic currency)

Vietnam

0.5%

4.5%

5.0%

India

0.7%

4.1%

4.9%

Bangladesh

0.6%

4.1%

4.8%

Pakistan

1.4%

2.9%

4.4%

Philippines

1.1%

3.1%

4.3%

Nigeria

2.3%

1.9%

4.2%

Egypt

1.4%

2.6%

4.1%

South Africa

0.5%

3.2%

3.7%

Indonesia

0.6%

3.1%

3.7%

Malaysia

0.8%

2.7%

3.5%

Colombia

0.4%

2.9%

3.3%

Mexico

0.7%

2.5%

3.3%

China

-0.1%

3.1%

3.0%

Turkey

0.5%

2.4%

3.0%

Saudi Arabia

1.1%

1.9%

3.0%

Argentina

0.7%

2.2%

2.9%

Iran

0.4%

2.5%

2.9%

Brazil

0.4%

2.2%

2.6%

Thailand

-0.3%

2.9%

2.6%

Australia

0.9%

1.3%

2.3%

Poland

-0.4%

2.5%

2.1%

United Kingdom

0.4%

1.5%

1.9%

Russia

-0.3%

2.2%

1.9%

Canada

0.6%

1.2%

1.8%

United States

0.5%

1.3%

1.8%

South Korea

0.0%

1.8%

1.8%

Netherlands

0.1%

1.5%

1.6%

France

0.3%

1.3%

1.6%

Spain

-0.1%

1.5%

1.4%

Germany

-0.2%

1.5%

1.3%

Italy

-0.2%

1.2%

1.0%

Japan

-0.5%

1.4%

0.9%

Source: PwC analysis (using UN population projections)

Table 3: GDP at MER rankings (at constant 2016 US$bn)

GDP at MER

2016 rankings

2030 rankings

2050 rankings

rankings

Country

GDP at MER

Country

Projected GDP at MER

Projected GDP Country at MER

1

United States

18562

China

26499

China

49853

2

China

11392

United States

23475

United States

34102

3

Japan

4730

India

7841

India

28021

4

Germany

3495

Japan

5468

Indonesia

7275

5

United Kingdom

2650

Germany

4347

Japan

6779

6

France

2488

United Kingdom

3530

Brazil

6532

7

India

2251

France

3186

Germany

6138

8

Italy

1852

Brazil

2969

Mexico

5563

9

Brazil

1770

Indonesia

2449

United Kingdom

5369

10

Canada

1532

Italy

2278

Russia

5127

11

South Korea

1404

South Korea

2278

France

4705

12

Russia

1268

Mexico

2143

Turkey

4087

13

Australia

1257

Russia

2111

South Korea

3539

14

Spain

1252

Canada

2030

Saudi Arabia

3495

15

Mexico

1064

Spain

1863

Nigeria

3282

16

Indonesia

941

Australia

1716

Italy

3115

17

Turkey

830

Turkey

1705

Canada

3100

18

Netherlands

770

Saudi Arabia

1407

Egypt

2990

19

Saudi Arabia

638

Poland

1015

Pakistan

2831

20

Argentina

542

Netherlands

1007

Spain

2732

21

Poland

467

Iran

1005

Iran

2586

22

Nigeria

415

Argentina

967

Australia

2564

23

Iran

412

Egypt

908

Philippines

2536

24

Thailand

391

Nigeria

875

Vietnam

2280

25

Egypt

340

Philippines

871

Bangladesh

2263

26

Philippines

312

Thailand

823

Poland

2103

27

Malaysia

303

Pakistan

776

Argentina

2103

28

Pakistan

284

Malaysia

744

Malaysia

2054

29

South Africa

280

Bangladesh

668

Thailand

1995

30

Colombia

274

Vietnam

624

South Africa

1939

31

Bangladesh

227

Colombia

586

Colombia

1591

32

Vietnam

200

South Africa

557

Netherlands

1496

Sources: IMF for 2016 estimates (updated for Turkey), PwC projections for 2030 and 2050 using UN population projections

 

Authors, contacts and services

This summary report was prepared by John Hawksworth and Hannah Audino of PwC’s Economics & Policy team in the UK, drawing on earlier modelling work by Rob Clarry. Additional research assistance was provided by Duncan McKellar. For more information about this report, please contact John or Hannah:

John Hawksworth, Chief Economist E: john.c.hawksworth@pwc.com

Rob Clarry , Economist (currently on career break)

Hannah Audino, Economist E: hannah.e.audino@pwc.com

This document has been prepared only for general guidance on matters of interest and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers does not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. This publication (and any extract from it) must not be copied, redistributed or placed on any website, without PricewaterhouseCoopers' prior written consent.

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